Giddey's 'Golden' move intriguing but unlikely

• Australian Boomers star Josh Giddey remains a restricted free agent in the NBA
• The Chicago Bulls have reportedly tabled a four-year, $80 million deal
• Giddey's camp is believed to have received interest from the Golden State Warriors

It’s been a long off-season for Josh Giddey.

After a stellar first season with the Chicago Bulls, particularly post-All Star break, it felt like his stock hit an all-time high just as his free agency loomed.

However, as a restricted free agent, and compounded by an offseason where very few teams have appropriate cap space, Giddey’s leverage to receive his market value feels limited. The Bulls, cognisant of the lack of options, have been playing hardball — reportedly tabling a four-year, $80 million dollar deal that is just enough not to insult, but enough to guarantee that the team would be getting a very market-friendly deal for them to build around.

With Giddey’s camp reported to be firm on their stance that he should be entertaining a deal of $30m per year, it has left the two parties at a firm and ongoing impasse.

After a long stalemate, we finally have reports of another team entertaining the conversation — the Golden State Warriors. But is this just another reported ‘inquiry’ with little to no legs, or are the Warriors a legitimate outcome for Australia’s star young point guard?

The Report

Rumours from Jake Fischer connecting the Warriors to Josh Giddey started last week, piggybacking off the Warriors own RFA stalemate with forward Jonathan Kuminga.

In a similar stand-off with his team, Kuminga and his camp appear very willing to move on from the Warriors organisation after a long-standing disconnect between style of play and opportunity, and he was indeed close to being moved at the deadline as a result. Aware of his desire to leave for more opportunity, the Warriors focus has now shifted towards not losing the 22-year-old for nothing, and holding his RFA rights, have all the power in their hands.

The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have both expressed interest in signing the forward, but with the Warriors in a position to match any potential offer, it’s returning value in a sign-and-trade deal that would get an offer across the line for either organisation.

The Kings, who fielded a three-year, $63 million dollar deal to Kuminga, initially offered Dario Saric, Devin Carter and a protected first round pick in return, per Sam Amick. This offer was declined by the Warriors. They subsequently offered up Malik Monk, with the Warriors still not budging.

With the Warriors playing hard ball on returning value for the man who went seventh overall in the 2021 NBA Draft, and the Bulls unable to find common ground on a deal for Giddey, reports naturally surfaced that the two could indeed be involved in a swap. The logic? Giddey is a superior talent to anything being offered by any other suitors of Kuminga, and the Bulls have been rumoured to have interest in Kuminga’s talents as far back as the deadline.

While the surmising might make sense on the surface, there are several pieces of evidence that seem to make such a deal unlikely.

1. The Warriors have declared they are no longer entertaining sign-and-trade deals for Jonathan Kuminga. Unhappy with the trade market, the Warriors have instead offered him a short term, two-year $45 million dollar contract — an option that would allow Kuminga to get paid, and for both parties to reassess his trade market over a longer time period. Most recent reports suggest Kuminga could also decline this option and instead bet on himself with a one year qualifying offer, followed by unrestricted free agency.
2. Though the Bulls have been rumoured to show interest in Kuminga, there has never been any indication that the Bulls would be willing to part with Giddey to attain his services. There have been no reports that the Bulls have ever wished to entertain any sign-and-trade scenarios for the Boomers star.
3. Feasibility to make such a deal appears extremely complicated within the current salary cap rules. Additional salary from the Golden State Warriors would be required, with Buddy Hield or Moses Moody being too applicable candidates, but Fischer has reported the team is not willing to move those pieces in such a deal. Even if they can make it work, such a deal would send the Warriors into a hard cap scenario, heavily limiting their future flexibility.

The Fit

Though it looks unlikely, the fit of Josh Giddey on the Golden State Warriors could be intriguing - specifically for the fit with Steph Curry. Entering the twilight of his career, the Warriors have sought additional creation around Curry to ease the offensive burden and utilise his shooting in a more sustainable way.

Kuminga and his isolated scoring were never a natural fit for the Warriors and head coach Steve Kerr, and by comparison, Giddey’s more selfless game feels like a more natural fit for the team and their offensive systems.

However, the Warriors would also be left with a surplus of connectors, with Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler also very willing to play more passive, facilitator-focused roles at times. Though Giddey’s shot certainly improved last season with the Bulls, he’s still not considered a high-gravity outside threat, and a line-up featuring Butler, Green and Giddey would be bereft of quality spacing, too.

It’s worth noting the potential fit of Kuminga with the Bulls, too. The Bulls number one priority appears to be building around forward Matas Buzelis, who only continued to break out after the Bulls initial reported interest in Kuminga around the deadline. Doubling down on talent at the forward positions, the Bulls drafted Noa Essengue with the 12th overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, as well.

The Options

While rumours of the Warriors theoretical interest in Giddey ring plausible, in practice, the execution of a trade that sees Giddey land at the Warriors feels near impossible.

Beyond the complexities of making such a deal feasible within the cap, any potential solution would become so convoluted that it no longer makes sense for either party. With Kuminga appearing increasingly likely to accept a short-term deal from the Warriors, it leaves Giddey’s camp back at square one negotiating for a more lucrative deal.

While both Kuminga and Giddey’s scenario’s would like to be resolved by all parties as soon as possible, it’s the teams in both cases that hold all the leverage in a tough market for restricted free agents, and despite Giddey’s $30 million per season asking price, there continues to be little incentive for the Bulls to budge on their tact of negotiation.

From there, the ball is in Giddey’s court. Beyond conceding to the Bulls long-term offer, he can alternatively bet on himself by accepting the one-year, $11.1 million dollar qualifying offer. In doing so, he would forgo money his next season in the league, but open up the opportunity to explore free agency completely unrestricted next off-season. With this comes a great deal of both risk and reward, with Giddey ultimately banking on form and health to continue to prove his market value and go through the same arduous process of negotiation all over again in 12 months. Have a year equal or superior to last and Giddey could be looking at a deal closer to the $150 million dollar range. Don’t, and he could lose out on a lot of money currently on the table.

Either way, it appears overwhelmingly likely that Josh Giddey will be a Chicago Bull next season. Despite an incredibly long and uncertain process, a deal still feels inevitable — but the details of that agreement might spell out how certain his future with the team looks beyond next season.

About the Author

Michael Houben is an Australian basketball writer and scout based in Melbourne, Victoria. As well as covering the game as a journalist, Michael supports US colleges to identify and recruit Australian talent as the owner of Airtime Scouting, and supports grassroots athletes through Airtime Basketball.