6

Jun

Analysis

Pressing pause: Why players are saying no to Draft

Written By

Banjo Tucker

Contributor

Highlights

The new NIL rule that’s making NCAA draft prospects rethink their NBA pathway

  • College basketball players in the US are opting to stay in school longer because they can now be paid
  • NIL deals are impacting the NBA Draft as players assess their earning capacity between the NBA and college
  • How to watch every 2025 NBL1 game LIVE and FREE

NCAA men’s basketball national champion Alex Condon is part of a growing trend of players pulling out of the NBA draft to return to college for another season, despite first round buzz.

In the past month alone, 50 prospects have withdrawn from the 2025 NBA Draft, choosing to return to college basketball, and with the early entry deadline looming on June 15, more are expected to follow.

Among them is Aussie big man Condon who turned heads with a breakout season for the Florida Gators and played a pivotal role in their NCAA National Championship run. Despite building genuine momentum as a first round draft selection, the Perth big man surprised many by announcing his return to Gainesville for another year.

So why are so many players hitting pause on their professional dreams? Money.

The answer lies in a major shift within the American collegiate system. Before the NCAA introduced its Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) policy in 2021, student athletes relied on scholarships to pay their way through school and like most university students, struggled for cash. The lure of professional basketball made the NBA draft a priority. It was rare for a top prospect to spend more than three years in college before declaring for the draft.

But the NIL allows players to profit from endorsements, sponsorships, social media deals and public appearances, effectively giving them a chance to earn money while still playing college sports. While universities are not allowed to directly pay players, NIL deals have become a legal and increasingly lucrative part of the game. 

Some athletes are now earning six and even seven figures per year just by staying in school. It is reported that expected No1 2025 Draft pick Cooper Flagg earned $28 million (USD) while at Duke.

But there’s a catch for international players that still needs reworking.

Athletes such as Condon are often on F-1 student visas, which severely limit the types of income they can legally earn while studying in the US. Under American visa rules, these athletes are technically restricted from engaging in paid work if it is off campus and NIL income typically falls into that category. 

While American teammates can freely sign deals with local or major brands, international athletes must navigate the complexity of immigration restrictions. Condon, for instance, is affiliated with Florida’s NIL collective Florida Victorious

The NIL boom has changed how players approach the draft. A common strategy now is to declare for the NBA Draft, attend the combine and gauge interest from teams. If a prospect doesn’t receive a strong first round promise, it’s becoming increasingly common to return to college, where development continues and NIL money offers some real security. Second round picks, after all, don’t come with guaranteed contracts, and most lead to a tough grind in the G League.

For international players, the calculation is even more complex. 

The financial upside of staying in school is less clear due to visa limitations, but the upside in draft stock development remains. After all, if Condon can continue to grow his offensive game and expand his role — which he clearly has an opportunity to do with the title contending Gators — a guaranteed first round pick could be well within reach next year.

His return also comes amid whispers that fellow West Australian Ben Henshall could join him at Florida, potentially reuniting two of the country's top young talents. 

NIL has fundamentally reshaped the college basketball landscape as professional sports are no longer the only path to financial gain. But for international players, it remains a system full of hurdles. 

Condon’s decision to return to Florida isn’t just about monetary value, it’s about betting on himself and keeping his NBA dreams alive on his own terms.

What is the NIL

NIL stands for Name, Image, and Likeness — a term used primarily in U.S. college sports to describe athletes’ rights to profit from their personal brand.

For many years, college athletes in the NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) were not allowed to earn money from endorsements or commercial ventures because they were considered amateurs. That changed on July 1, 2021, when the NCAA lifted restrictions on athletes profiting from their NIL.

With NIL rights, college athletes can legally:

  • Sign endorsement deals (e.g., with apparel brands, energy drinks, local businesses)
  • Monetise social media accounts (e.g., TikTok, Instagram)
  • Get paid for autographs or appearances
  • Run their own businesses
  • Partner with brands for sponsored content
  • Create merchandise (e.g., custom jerseys or products)

What They Cannot Do:

  • Receive direct “pay-for-play” compensation from schools (e.g., bonuses for performance)
  • Be paid by boosters as a condition of enrollment at a school (though enforcement is inconsistent)

Why It Matters:

  • It shifts power to athletes, letting them capitalize on their fame.
  • It levels the playing field for non-revenue sport athletes (e.g., gymnasts, swimmers) with large social followings.
  • It has transformed college recruiting, with some schools using NIL opportunities as a major selling point.

Who has done it:

  • Bronny James (USC): Signed deals with Nike and Beats by Dre.
  • Livvy Dunne (LSU gymnast): Earns millions through social media endorsements.
  • Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): Endorses several major brands while playing QB for his father, Deion Sanders.

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